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NATGAS: TTF Rebounds Amid Escalating Middle East Risk and Warmer Weather

NATGAS

TTF front month rebounds from the lows of €34.745/MWh yesterday supported by a recovery in wider market risk sentiment and with escalating Middle East risks. Supply could be at risk amid growing concerns that Iran is expected to retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran. The U.S. is urging countries to convey that "escalation is in no one's interest”, said a State Department spokesperson.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast just above normal this week, but the latest outlook suggests warmer weather over the coming weekend and into the start of next week before easing lower again.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe remain strong at 350.5mcm/d today with Gassco showing limited outages until 18mcm/d offline from Aug 10.
  • European LNG sendout rose from the lowest since October 2021 back up to 213mcm/d but remains low.
  • European gas in store is up to 85.97% full on Aug 4 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 77.3% but stores in Germany now over 90% full.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down to 44.3cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 261k on Aug 5.
    • TTF SEP 24 up 2.3% at 36.31€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.4% at 39.58€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1.7% at 38.48€/MWh

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