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National and Scotia Question CPI-Common

CANADA
  • National: “We recommend focusing on CPI-Trim and CPI-median, which have proved better at capturing underlying inflation trends. Encouragingly, our in-house replications of these measures are showing signs of slowdown, with 3-month annualised progressions dropping below 6-month gains.”
  • The worst is now behind us but the Bank should be encouraged to hike 75bp in Sept before pausing as further mon pol tightening could prove counterproductive with reduced global demand and a weakening housing market.
  • Scotia: Advise placing greater emphasis upon trimmed mean (5.4% y/y), weighted median CPI (5.0% y/y), and simpler measures. In M/M SAAR terms, CPI ex-food-and-energy was up 6.1% from 5.2%, CPI ex the 8 most volatile items held at 5% and CPIX slowed from 5.9 to 5%. Rates have cooled from their March peaks when reopening from Omicron restrictions, but are all vastly above the 2% target.
  • The data lends itself to a 75bps move on Sept 7 to being in very mildly restrictive territory given neutral estimates of 2–3%.
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