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National Gradual Easing Pace Points to Just 50BP of Further Easing This Year

CANADA
  • National Bank of Canada indicate the focus now turns to the pacing of cuts in this nascent easing cycle. In the opening statement to the presser, Macklem said it’s reasonable to expect further easing as long as inflation continues to ease. That puts a July cut squarely in focus and we’d be inclined to bet they will ease again at the next meeting.
  • At the same time, National would note that earlier BoC communications indicated that monetary policy easing this year would be “gradual”. Macklem confirmed this view in the press conference. So although back-to-back cuts may be instituted to start, National are sceptical they’ll continue at the same pace thereafter.
  • National agree with market expectations that 50 basis points of additional rate relief is appropriate in 2024. In contrast, the consensus sees this marking the start of a more aggressive easing campaign. The median expectation is for a 4% policy rate by year-end.
  • Three more cuts over the last four decisions of the year, isn’t a pace of cuts we would characterize as gradual and isn’t as likely to materialize barring a more material slowdown in the economy.
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