National Retail Federation:More Holiday Shoppers Than Expected

--174mn shoppers in 5-day Period Around Thanksgiving Vs 164mn Estimate

--Average Per Person Spending $335.47, Older Millennials Spending $419.52

By Vicki Schmelzer

     NEW YORK (MNI)   - U.S. consumers were shopping in droves, both in store

and online during the period from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday, encouraged

by the strength of the U.S. economy, according to a holiday spending data

released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation.

     During the five-day period, "more than 174 million Americans shopped in

stores and online," which was well above the 164 million pre-Thanksgiving

estimate from an earlier survey by the NRF and Prosper Insights and Analytics,

the NRF said. 

     U.S. consumers spent an average of $335.47 during the Thanksgiving to Cyber

Monday period, with older Millennials (25-34 years old) spending the most, at

$419.52, the NRF said. 

     "That combination of higher consumer sentiment and the overall health of

the macro economy - those are both very very good things for the retail industry

- for small and large retail businesses and for the consumers that we serve,"

said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay in a conference call with reporters.

     The 2017 holiday shopping experience so far is unique in that, unlike prior

years, there have been no major disruptive events. 

     "If you roll this back 4,5,6,7 years, we've had the fiscal cliff, we've had

the government shutdown, we've had interesting and sometimes controversial

elections, we had the Brexit a year ago - so none of those things are issues

this year," Shay said.

     The NRF continued to embrace their forecast from early October, that said

holiday retail sales in November and December - excluding automobiles, gasoline

and restaurants - should rise by 3.6-4.0% to total $678.75 billion to $682

billion, versus $655.8 billion in 2016. 

     Despite the solid consumer spending seen in the Thanksgiving to Cyber

Monday period, Shay cautioned about expecting even higher retail sales this

year. 

     "Only two times since the recession - 2011 and 2014 - have we been in

excess of 4%," he reminded.   

     "We're not predicting that we will be greater than 4% this year," Shay

said, but  was "encouraged that we are starting off from a position of

strength."

     On the breakdown of the 174 million U.S. shoppers, 58 million shopped

online only, 51 million shopped in stores only and 65 million shopped in both

venues, he said. 

     "We saw that the majority of people that are out shopping are using both

channels," Shay said, "They're becoming increasingly 'channel agnostic' and I

think that really validates and substantiates the investments that retailers are

making to try to reach consumers in different ways."

     On Congress potentially soon passing tax reform, which has been "number

one" on retailers' wish list for a decade, "we feel very optimistic that this is

going to happen," he said. 

     "It's our view that the single best thing that could be done for the 3.6

million businesses in this country that are in the retail industry, would be to

pass this tax bill, and we're going to be working aggressively to make that

happen between now and the end of the year," he said.  

     On 2017 sales, the calendar will aid retailers this year, with Christmas

falling 32 days after Thanksgiving. This means shoppers will have one additional

day more than last year. Also, Christmas falls on a Monday instead of Sunday in

2017, so consumers have an extra weekend day to complete their shopping.

     NRF/Prosper Insights and Analytics asked 3,242 consumers about Thanksgiving

weekend and Cyber Monday shopping plans. The survey, conducted Nov. 25-26, has a

margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, the NRF said.

     "This year's Thanksgiving weekend results do not include historical data

from past years due to changes made to the survey methodology to help better

understand consumers' shopping experience and to include Cyber Monday in the

calculations," the NRF added in a special note on this year's data.

--MNI New York Bureau; tel: +1 212-669-6438; email: vicki.schmelzer@marketnews.com

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