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Natixis Pulls 1st Rate Cut View Forward, PEPP Reinvestment To Stop In July

ECB

Natixis pulls forward their ECB rate cut call in light of today's soft Eurozone inflation data:

  • They now see a first cut at the June 2024 meeting, with cuts at each meeting thereafter, for 125bp of total cuts in 2024. Previously they'd seen the first cut in September 2024.
  • They also expect the ECB to announce in early 2024 that it will reduce PEPP reinvestments by April and end reinvestments altogether in July.
  • "With inflation being close to target and core inflation set to decline below 3% during H1 2024, the ECB can start to normalize rates rather sooner than later. However... given the past misses to the upside...the level of confidence [in inflation moderation] needs to be very high...thus we expect a cut only to take place in June".
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