Free Trial

Natixis Pulls 1st Rate Cut View Forward, PEPP Reinvestment To Stop In July

ECB

Natixis pulls forward their ECB rate cut call in light of today's soft Eurozone inflation data:

  • They now see a first cut at the June 2024 meeting, with cuts at each meeting thereafter, for 125bp of total cuts in 2024. Previously they'd seen the first cut in September 2024.
  • They also expect the ECB to announce in early 2024 that it will reduce PEPP reinvestments by April and end reinvestments altogether in July.
  • "With inflation being close to target and core inflation set to decline below 3% during H1 2024, the ECB can start to normalize rates rather sooner than later. However... given the past misses to the upside...the level of confidence [in inflation moderation] needs to be very high...thus we expect a cut only to take place in June".

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.