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Natixis Recommends Long 10Y DSL Vs Short OAT

BONDS

Ahead of the Dutch elections (MNI preview here), Natixis has put out a recommendation of being long 2.50% Jul-33 DSL v being short OAT 3.50% Nov-33, (with entry point 23bp, target 32bp, stop-loss:18bp).

  • They see "likely continuity in Dutch sovereign supply in 2024" (E45bln gross vs E46bln in 2023), with the elections not a "game changer for the fiscal path" and probability for the "new coalition to be a little more reticent for fiscal impulse".
  • Conversely they see France as set to increase its gross issuance target in 2024 (E310bln v E295bln) "and will be significantly hit by QT", vs the Netherlands which will see only "low QT effect".
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