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Natixis View on Fed's Dot Plot: Hawkish

FED

Natixis said the "dot plot underwent a very hawkish update, with a median for 2022 at 0.3% against 0.1% in June, 1% for 2023 against 0.6% and 1.8% for 2024. At first sight, these upward revisions seem justified in view of the substantial revision of the core PCE inflation forecasts: 3.7% in 2021 (vs. 3.0% in June), 2.3% in 2022 (2.1%), 2.2% in 2023 (2.1%), with a similar trend for the headline PCE."

  • "However, the median hides a much greater disparity among FMOC members and, above all, threatens to undermine the credibility of the discourse of a de-correlation between tapering and rate hikes preached by most Fed members.
  • The higher dot plot can also be seen as greater recognition by FMOC members of scenarios where inflation is not as transient as initially expected. Growth forecasts are less optimistic. With none of the members vocal about tapering voting against, the statement was approved unanimously."
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