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Nats Reach Highest Polling Support Since Oct '20 Amid COVID Surge

NEW ZEALAND

The main opposition centre-right National Party has recorded its highest level of opinion polling support since October 2020 in the latest poll from 1 News-Colmar Brunton. The party still trails PM Jacinda Ardern's centre-left Labour Party by 8%, but the gap between the two is the narrowest since March 2020.

  • 1 News/Kantar poll: Labour: 40% (-1), National: 32% (+4), ACT: 11% (-3), Green: 9%, NZF: 2% (-1), Maori: 2% (+1). +/- vs. 10-17 November 2021. Fieldwork: 22-26 January 2022. Sample size: 1,000
  • The rise in support for the Nationals has come largely at the expense of the libertarian right ACT party, which fell 3 points to 11% in the latest poll.
  • This is the first poll carried out since Botany Bay MP and former Air New Zealand CEO Christopher Luxon took over the leadership of the Nationals in late-November 2021.
  • The next election is not due until mid-2024, but speculation persists of a snap election in 2023. At present, Labour's majority would not be assured, although it would likely be able to rely once again on the support of the environmentalist Greens to reach a majority.
  • Comes as New Zealand enters the 'red light' stage of its COVID restrictions, with new plans to live with COVID rather than pursuing a 'zero COVID' strategy as was the case in 2020 and 2021.
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