Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Hits 6-Month Low

Henry Hub has fallen to around a 6-month low as milder weather forecasts into the start of 2024, weak demand, and record output push down prices.

• US Natgas JAN 24 down -5.6% at 2.44$/mmbtu
• US Natgas JUN 24 down -5.1% at 2.44$/mmbtu
• Meanwhile, the March-April US natgas spread, known as the widowmaker due to volatility, briefly turned negative, demonstrating ample winter supply, Bloomberg said.
• Above-normal temperatures are expected to dominate most of North America for at least the next 10 days and beyond, according to a note by commercial forecaster Atmospheric G2.
• Domestic natural gas production is today estimated at 106.0bcf/d according to Bloomberg with data showing a record 106.55bcf/d on Dec 8 last week.
• Demand from US LNG export terminals is strong with feedgas supplies at 14.8bcf/d according to Bloomberg after reaching a record high of 15.1bcf/d yesterday
• LNG deliveries to Europe and Turkey rose more than 12% last week to nearly a ten month high of 4bcm according Montel citing Kpler ship-tracking data.
• A 1Q24 price forecast of 3.25$/mmbtu is proving to be too optimistic with clear risk of a revision lower according to a note from JP Morgan but the forecast currently remains unchanged amid uncertainty regarding 1Q24 weather.
• EU members states have the legal power to individually block Russian gas imports as part of a provisional deal agreed by the bloc on Friday.