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Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Plummets

NATURAL GAS

Henry Hub has plummeted to its lowest level since Jan. 9, driven by warmer weather forecasts in the US next week. Current severe cold is driving higher domestic demand but also a drop in production and lower LNG feedgas flows.

  • US Natgas FEB 24 down -12.3% at 2.9$/mmbtu
  • Domestic natural gas demand is holding near the highest since late December 2022 at 128.4bcf/d today according to Bloomberg driven by severe cold this week.
  • The latest NOAA forecast is showing above normal temperatures across the country in the 6-14 day period.
  • Feedgas flows to US LNG export terminals fell to its lowest level since June at 10.7bcf/d, yesterday and still down at 11.45bcf/d today according to Bloomberg data.
  • US natural gas production yesterday fell to the lowest since Dec 2022 at 92.78bcf/d according to Bloomberg.
  • Kinder Morgan's El Paso Natural Gas pipeline warned of "strained operating conditions" as Permian Basin spot production operated at 93% of scheduled volumes.
  • US natural gas is forecast to end the traditional withdrawal period at the end of March with 1.94Tcf of storage with end of October storage down at 3.95Tcf, assuming normal weather for February and March according to JP Morgan.
  • Chinese LNG consumption is expected to grow by 7% this year, compared with 14% last year according to BNEF.
  • Indonesia is planning to produce around 250 LNG cargoes in 2024, compared with 213 cargoes in 2023.
  • Total will not receive LNG cargoes from Arctic LNG 2 in 2024, citing US sanctions imposed in November, according to Bloomberg.
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