Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Retreats

US Henry Hub has fallen back to be trading lower on the day as rises in LNG export supplies are countered by a cooler weather forecast and data yesterday showing above normal storage injections last week. Henry Hub’s rally in the second half of the week means it is set for a rise of 30 cents/MMBtu compared to Sep.22

US Natgas NOV 23 down -0.4% at 2.93$/mmbtu

US Natgas APR 24 down -0.2% at 3.01$/mmbtu

Natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals are today up to 12.57bcf/d according to Bloomberg with a recovery in flows to Corpus Christi back to near normal levels.

Domestic natural gas consumption is relatively unchanged at 67.1bcf/d and still above the five year average for the time of year. The latest NOAA two week outlook shows signs of cooler weather into October for much of the US. Central areas are now showing nearer to normal while the west coast has actually turned slightly warmer and no longer expecting below normal temperatures.

US domestic natural gas production is today estimated at 101.3cf/d according to Bloomberg compared to the average of 101.45bcf/d this month and 99.4bcf/d in Sep 2022.

Export flows to Mexico are today estimated high at 7.3bcf/d.

Gazprom’s Russian units produced 179.45bcm of natural gas in the first half of this year, down nearly 25% compared to the first half of 2022 according to company disclosure documents.

LNG sendout to Europe is up to 302mcm/d on 27 Sep from as low as 236mcm/d on 23 Sep but still well below levels around 370mcm/d seen this time last year.

Europe's LNG imports dropped by 20% yoy in Sep23, leading to their steepest drop since Russia's invasion of Ukraine according to IEA.

Asian LNG buyers are now favouring oil indexation in their long-term contracting needs to move away from additional US LNG commitments according to Energy Intelligence.

Japan's LNG stocks are expected to rise between October and November amid stock replenishments and falling weather temperatures, according to Platts.

Japan is facing logistical difficulties for LNG deliveries due to US sanctions on the use of Russian transshipment terminals according to Daisuke Harada at JOGMEC.

Cargoes offshore Europe that are remaining at sea is an indication of growing length in the Atlantic’s LNG market, according to ICIS.