Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Ticks Up

Henry Hub is heading for US close trading higher, despite erasing most of its earlier gains. An upward revision on expected US dry gas output in the latest US Short-term Energy outlook is likely to be a bearish factor on the day.

• US Natgas MAY 24 up 1.1% at 1.87$/mmbtu
• US dry natural gas production is seen at 103.6 bcf/d in 2024, an upward revision of 0.2% from March’s estimate, according to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook April 9.
• US domestic natural gas production was yesterday estimated at 100.1bcf/d according to Bloomberg and in line with the average seen during the first week of April.
• Feedgas flow to US LNG export terminals are today estimated up slightly on the day to 13.05bcf/d. Freeport LNG feedgas flows have risen 0.4bcf/d on the day to the highest since March 3 but remain at around two thirds of capacity.
• Lower 48 natural gas demand is pulling back from the high levels seen over the last week towards normal at 68.5bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
• The latest NOAA 6-14 day forecast shows above normal temperatures expected in central and eastern areas but closer to normal forecast for the western US.
• Global weekly LNG imports edged up by 4% to 8.2mn tons during 1-7 April, supported by more shipments into Northwest Europe and Italy according to BNEF.
• The Northwest Europe forward curve, which prices 11 month out, has risen steadily over the past month and a half, with some month hitting multi-month peaks, Platts said.
• LNG demand is switching back to Asia after Europe’s energy crisis has supported European LNG demand, Mario Matkovic, CEO of MET Croatia, said.