Natural Gas End of Day Summary: TTF Recoups Earlier Losses

TTF sees another volatile trading session with the front month testing new lows from yesterday earlier in the session before rising back higher on the day. The market remains sensitive to supply risks from potential LNG strikes at Australian facilities and upcoming maintenance in Norway.

• TTF SEP 23 up 1.6% at 37.43€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 2.8% at 53.91€/MWh
• In Australia, a union ballot to vote for possible strike action at Chevron’s Gorgon and at its Wheatstone downstream facilities opened on Friday, while voting for workers at Chevron’s Wheatstone offshore platform is scheduled to open on 21 August.
• The upcoming yearly maintenance in Norway will significantly limit gas pipeline supply availability to Europe with capacity reductions of up to 174mcm/d during the peak on 4-6 September, Gassco remit data show.
• Total European gas storage is now already over the EU pre-winter target of 90% by 1 Nov.
• Russian pipeline exports to Europe maintained their recent increase in the first half of August. Combined flows via the two remaining gas pipeline routes – excluding flows through Turkey – rose 6% compared with the first half of July to 1.36bcm.
• Italy has reduced its dependence on Russian natural gas to almost zero, the Minister of the Environment and Energy Security said.
• Poland’s Orlen has signed a contract with Gaz-System for 6.1 Bcm/yr of capacity for 15 years at the planned Gdansk LNG terminal.
• LNG sendout to Europe was up slightly at 305mcm/d on 16 August after seeing flows below 300mcm/d over the previous week.
• US LNG is more profitable to Asia for the remainder of 2023, according to BNEF.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 up 3.1$/mmbtu at 2.18$/mmbtu
• China’s LNG imports in July rose by 24.3% to 5.68mn tons. Pipeline natural gas imports in July stood at 4.45mn tons, up by 12.4% on the year.
• China’s imports of LNG are expected to slow in the winter season, replaced instead by cheaper forms of gas.
• Russia's Arctic-2 LNG project is proceeding as planned with first phase to start operation during this year.
• Argentina’s Enarsa has cancelled a spot LNG cargo delivery due to arrive at the Escobar terminal in mid-August, the third cargo cancellation this year.
• US LNG producer New Fortress Energy expects to launch an FSRU in Brazil called Barcarena in Q4.