Natural Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Plummets

TTF extends the downward correction today to reverse most of the gains seen yesterday. The expected end of a 25mcm/d unplanned outage at Troll on Wednesday is adding to downside pressure from low European demand and healthy storage levels up to nearly 95%.

• TTF OCT 23 down -10.2% at 39.93€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -7.2% at 46.34€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated down slightly to 222.6mcm/d but further capacity is expected to return later this week. Outages are expected to total 63mcm/d by the end of this week and then fall to 34mcm/d by 8 October.
• The Norwegian maintenance schedule is unchanged on the day. The large Troll field is still scheduled to return from an unplanned outage on Wednesday, Gassco remit data show.
• TF is expected to be pressured lower as Norwegian production returns, given elevated storage levels and with the lack of colder-than-average temperatures across NW Europe in the two-week forecast according to Goldman Sachs.
• European natural gas storage is up to 94.96% full on 24 Sep according to GIE data with injection rates recovering this week and compared to the five year average of 86.3%.
• The latest two week weather forecast is relatively unchanged from yesterday and shows above normal temperatures over the next week before cooling back towards normal during the first week of October.
• LNG sendout to Europe was at 250mcm/d on 24 Sep with flows well below last year’s levels of around 370mcm/d.
• The total estimated quantity of LNG on tankers that have not unloaded for at least 20 days increased 30% over the last week to 3.11mn tons as of 24 September, the highest level since 22 May and 49% above the 2018-2022 average.
• Global LNG imports rose by 8% on the week to 7.6mn tons in the week 18-24 September, driven by shipments into India and some European countries according to BNEF.
• China’s demand for spot winter LNG cargoes may fall from last year, as alternative supplies keep the market “generally in balance” according to Sinopec Economic and Development Research Institute.
• Qatar’s energy minister Saad al-Kaabi sees the requirement for natural gas until well after 2050 and must go hand in hand with renewables development according to Energy Intelligence.
• LNG Carriers Waiting offshore in Europe for Higher Winter Price: ICIS
• There are around nine LNG cargoes currently waiting offshore Europe for new orders or higher prices later in the winter, according to ICIS.