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NatWest Below Consensus For Payrolls

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • NatWest are at the bottom of the consensus range with a NFP forecast of growth slowing to 155k in March, the slowest monthly pace since Dec’20 (consensus 230k).
  • The boost from favourable weather in Jan/Feb likely waned as more typical temperatures prevailed.
  • The recent turmoil in the banking sector and the subsequent tightening in financial conditions may be indicative of some cooling in hiring as well. The recent and oncoming tightening in lending standards suggests payroll growth may slow down in the coming quarters. Our own model based on the Fed’s SLOOS signals a marked slowdown in payroll growth towards the end of Q1 2023.
  • They expect a further increase in the u/e rate to 3.7% after the two-tenths increase in Feb, backed in part by the edging lower in the Conference Board labor market differential.
  • AHE seen 0.3% M/M, with the Y/Y slipping from 4.6% to 4.3% but above the pre-Covid trend of ~3% Y/Y.
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