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NatWest on Fri's NFP

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • NatWest economists expect the "September employment report will show additional evidence that payroll growth is moderating, but no sign of an imminent collapse. Nonfarm payrolls may have risen in the month by around 180,000 following August’s 187,000 monthly increase. For the first six months of this year, monthly average job growth was 257,000."
  • Current estimates for Friday's jobs gains is running at +168k, with a change in private payrolls +155k vs. +179k prior.
  • NatWest expects "average hourly earnings to have increased by 0.3% in September, which would leave the year/year rate at 4.3% in September (down from 5.0%y/y last September)."

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