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NatWest on Wednesday's CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Treasury yields holding modestly higher levels (10Y +.0187 at 3.4093) amid generally muted trade ahead Wednesday's CPI (0.2% MoM est vs. 0.4% prior; 5.1% YoY est vs. 6.0% prior) and FOMC minutes for the March meeting.
  • NatWest economists suspect weaker energy prices "should weigh on the headline CPI; we expect the earlier drop in energy prices should lead to about a 5% decline in gasoline component, while increases in food prices (0.3%) and the core CPI (0.434%) should not be too different than last month (0.452%)."
  • "On a y/y basis, " NatWest says the "headline CPI inflation rate may have moderated from 6.0% in February to 5.1% in March, while the core rate could have ticked up from 5.5% in February to 5.6%."

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