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NatWest expects little new from the April FOMC, apart from a possible tweak in the Statement language.

  • Statement: If the FOMC wants to make modest changes, they could make the description of current economic conditions slightly more positive than in March, consistent with recent data (e.g. changing "Following a moderation in the pace of the recovery, indicators of economic activity and employment have turned up recently" by adding "sharply").
  • Could reword the reference to inflation by acknowledging a temporary move above 2% in inflation in 2021.
  • Seems premature to remove the reference that the pandemic "poses considerable risks".
  • Press conference: Powell to reiterate comments in his recent 60 Minutes interview when he said the economy was at an "inflection point" with stronger growth and hiring ahead.
  • Future action: IOER and O/N RRP rate adjustment in June/July.