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NatWest: 75bp Hikes In June and July

FED

NatWest now sees 75bp hikes in both June and July (with Powell set to signal Wednesday that the latter is "on the table").

  • "In our view, given the Fed’s blackout period, Powell decided a WSJ article was the only option ahead of tomorrow’s meeting to prepare markets that 75 is now on the table. We agree that Powell would prefer not to be “forced” by markets, but, at this point, we feel Powell and the rest of the FOMC would rather try to attempt to get inflation better under control than worry about criticism that he is being led by markets."
  • NatWest is eyeing hikes at the remaining meetings this year beyond July, but is waiting to see the updated Dot Plot and the projection of the terminal rate.
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