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NatWest View Powell's Speech With Hawkish Slant

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • NWM view Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech as not offering a hard signal about the near-term policy path but rather trying to retain maximum optionality—leaving the door open for possible future action "if appropriate".
  • Whether officials choose to hike again next month (or not any more this hiking cycle) will depend on the incoming data and financial market conditions.
  • Next week’s jobs data along with the CPI report (Sep 13) will be critical to the September 20th decision, with NWM projecting +180k for NFP growth and another 0.2% M/M for core CPI, "sufficient enough for the Fed to leave rates unchanged".
  • "For the most part, Powell used today's opportunity to follow up and take some stock on the progress the FOMC made over the past year. Market participants will debate whether the chair had a hawkish or dovish slant, but we interpreted it as the former as the price stability goal clearly still took precedence."
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