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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
NatWest's expectations for May CPI are a little above consensus (on headline), with +0.5% M/M seen for both headline and core. But they call their core forecast "borderline; we wouldn't be shocked by a 0.6% rise" - with an unrounded 0.545% estimate.
- They estimate that COVID-impacted components explained about 70% of the 0.9% core CPI rise in April, and expect prices stayed firm in May (see chart).
- NatWest notes that half of the strength in their core forecast comes from a +8.0% used car inflation estimate (vs 10% in April), while new car prices are likely to have edged higher too. Airfares likely higher again too (+2.0%, after +10.2% in April).
- They see rents /OER rising by 0.2% M/M, again lagging the broader core advance.
Source: NatWest Markets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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