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NBH Expected To Raise Benchmark Rate By Another 30bps

HUNGARY
  • The NBH is expected to raise its benchmark by 30bps to 1.2% on July 27.
  • In their latest inflation report published on June 24, the NBH reviewed its inflation forecast for 2021 to the upside.
  • In the past few weeks, the rise in political instability amid a series of legal disputes with the EU has been weighing on the HUF, which has been the worst performing currency in July among the CEEMEA World.
  • Selling pressure on the HUF could eventually become a problem for NBH policymakers as it could intensify the inflationary pressures.
  • USDHUF has been trending higher this week, currently testing its 307 resistance; next level to watch on the topside stands at 310. On the downside, first support stands at 303.50, followed by 300.
  • Hungary 10Y yield is flat this morning ahead of the NBH meeting, currently trading slightly below its 100DMA at 2.80%. Next resistance to watch on the topside stands at 2.86% (50DMA). On the downside, first support stands at 2.68%.
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