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NBH Leaves 1W Depo Rate Steady Amid Recent HUF Strength

HUNGARY
  • As expected, the NBH left its 1W depo rate steady at 6.15% (as expected) as the recent HUF strength has eased the pressure on policymakers to continue their ‘aggressive’ tightening through the 1W depo facility.
  • EURHUF has been retracing lower in the past two week after reaching at local high at 382.10 in the week following Orban’s victory.
  • The pair is gradually approaching its key support at 370; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 366.70 (100DMA).
  • The forint still trades significantly below its ‘fundamental’ value despite recent gains.
  • The chart below shows that the HUF remains the ‘cheapest’ currency among the G10/CEE world, currently trading 22.8% below its ‘fundamental’ value (according to our BEER FX model).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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