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NBH Preview: NBH To Continue Its Gradual Tightening

HUNGARY

Executive Summary:

  • The NBH is likely to hike its policy rate by 30bps to 2.4% on Dec 14
  • NBH has raised its 1W depo rate by 150bps in the past month to limit HUF weakness and curb inflationary pressures
  • The 1W deposit rate could reach 4% in early 2022 and the policy rate is expected to gradually converge towards the 1W deposit rate through H2 2022

Link to full preview:


NBH CB Prev - Dec 14.pdf


The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is likely to hike its policy rate by 30bps to 2.4% on December 14 following the recent consecutive weekly hikes in the 1W deposit rate. In order to limit the downside risk on HUF and curb inflationary pressures, the NBH has raised its weekly deposit rate by 150bps to 3.30% in the past month (which is now the effective policy rate). We expect the 1W deposit rate to reach 4% in early 2022 and the policy rate to gradually converge towards the 1W deposit rate through H2 2022.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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