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NBH To Continue Monthly Interest Rate Hikes

HUNGARY
  • There was not real change in NBH policy outlook; the central bank is expected to continue to hike on a monthly basis.
  • Two 15bps hikes are currently priced in by the market for the next two meetings; this will bring the policy rate up to 2.1% by year end.
  • As we mentioned it in our review, the 'consensus hike' was not enough to strengthen the HUF.
  • HUF has been one of the weakest performing EM currencies since the start of September, down nearly 5% against the US Dollar, even though NBH has been raising rates since June.
  • Further HUF weakness could 'push' the NBH to hike more aggressively as a weak forint is supporting inflation expectations.
  • Important resistance to watch on EURHUF stands at 370; the last time the pair was testing that level was in mid-March, at the 'peak' of the pandemic (which weighed significantly on CEE countries).

Link to the NBH statement:

https://www.mnb.hu/en/monetary-policy/the-monetary...

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