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NBH to Kick Off Tightening Cycle on June 22

HUNGARY
  • NBH policymakers have turned more hawkish in recent weeks, with market expecting a first hike on June 22 (40bps increase, which would bring the benchmark rate up to 1%).
  • Traders will now focus on what the tightening cycle will look like.
  • Despite NBH members recent 'hawkish' tone, there has been some aggressive selling pressure on HUF, implying that traders continue to take profit following strong momentum in April and May.
  • On Friday, PM Orban in a state radio interview that he was 'very concerned' that 3mil people (about a third of the country's population), have not taken up a coronavirus vaccine, after several weeks of great progress.
  • USDHUF has been testing its 300 resistance (200D SMA) in the past two days following strong HUF consolidation in the past 10 days; a break above that level would open the door for a move up to 303.50. On the downside, first support stands now at 297.70 (100D SMA), followed by 293 (50D SMA)..
  • Hungary 10Y yield has been moving sideways in the past week, trading slightly above tis 50D SMA at 2.84%; key ST resistance on the topside stands at 3%. On the downside, first support to watch stands at 2.70% (100D SMA), followed by 2.60%..
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