Free Trial

NBP Kochalski Confirms CPI Inflation Will Fall

POLAND
  • In an interview today, NBP policymaker Cezary Kochalski confirmed that CPI inflation should decline in the medium term and therefore there is no need to start a tightening cycle in the coming months.
  • He expects interest rates to remain unchanged until the end of the MPC term in Q1 2022.
  • Even though inflation may remain between 4% and 4.5% in the coming quarters, it should fall back below NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band next year.
  • The chart below shows that the 2023 breakeven inflation is currently trading at 3.72%, implying that the bond market is not expecting inflationary pressures to ease in the second half of this year (and early next year).

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.