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NBP Likely To Hike By 75bps on Dec 8

POLAND
  • Three NBP policymakers - Eugeniusz Gatnar, Lukasz Hardt and Kamil Zubelewicz - voted against the Polish Monetary Policy Council’s guidelines for 2022. In September, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council voted that it will next year maintain its medium-term inflation target of 2.5% with +/-1 percentage point tolerance range and stick to the toolbox it currently has at its disposal (BBG).
  • On Friday, Finance Minister Tadeusz Koscinski mentioned in an interview that he sees inflation peaking in January-February 2022.
  • Last week, we also saw that NBP Governor Glapinski changed his view on Inflation, saying that it is ‘burdensome’ (not 'transitory' anymore).
  • NBP is meeting this week, and the current environment puts Polish policymakers in a difficult position:
    • On one hand, NBP should continue to hike rate ‘aggressively’ to curb the inflationary pressure as CPI inflation keeps diverging from the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band (CPI came in at 7.7% in November).
    • On the other hand, raising rates sharply when uncertainty is surging could lead to further deceleration in the economic activity and increases recession risks.
  • Given recent NBP policymakers speeches, it is likely that the central bank will hike its benchmark rate by 75bps on December 8.
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