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NBP Raised Its Policy Rate By 50bps to 2.25%

POLAND
  • Yesterday, NBP decided to raise its benchmark rate by 50bps to 2.25% (as expected).
  • Even though the 50bps hike was largely priced in by the market, momentum on PLN remained firm with EURPLN breaking below its 200DMA support during yesterday’s trading session.
  • NBP commented in its statement that it will continue to act against inflationary pressures in the coming months.
  • NBP also repeated that it may intervene in the FX market and that the scope of the tightening will depend on data (especially inflation updates).
  • A few participants were expecting a 75bps+ hike yesterday, but NBP policymakers may prefer to prolong the tightening cycle rate rather than hike rates aggressively as an aggressive tightening cycle generally weighs on growth expectations.
  • Next important data to watch will be December CPI inflation coming out on January 7, expected to accelerate to 8.2% YoY (from 7.8% in November).
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