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NBP's Janczyk Says Rate-Cut Discussion Is Justified, Retail Sales Up Today

POLAND
  • NBP's Wieslaw Janczyk said that "it seems fully justified to discuss whether there could be a cut in benchmark interest rates at the decision-making meetings of the Monetary Policy Council in September or October." Janczyk said that "the primary condition for interest rate cuts is a confirmation of the [NBP] projection findings in coming months." In his view, the MPC should also assess if current monetary policy settings are appropriate for lower levels of inflation. A decline in the WIBOR would provide another signal supporting a rate cut, as it would indicate "market acceptance of lower money price." Janczyk added that the MPC would likely start with a cautious cut to the tune of 25bp.
  • The main opposition Civic Platform (PO) called for a protest on October 1 after police searched a woman who called a doctor seeking medical assistance after taking an abortion pill. The rally will take place just two weeks ahead of the most likely date for a parliamentary election. A PO source told Onet that the party had already been planning to hold a rally around that time. Some observers have interpreted the party's call as an attempt to draw public attention to issues that may undermine support for the right-wing ruling Law and Justice and the far-right opposition Confederation.
  • Poland's June retail sales will cross the wires at 09:00BST/10:00CEST. Consensus looks for an annual increase of 2.6%, with real retail sales expected to have shrunk 5.0% Y/Y. Yesterday's macroeconomic data showed that real wage growth turned positive for the first time since July 2022.
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