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NBP To Announce Pivotal Rate Decision

POLAND
  • The NBP may deliver its first rate cut since May 2020 as soon as today, even as inflation remained stuck in double digits (+10.1% Y/Y in August), which means that a key condition for monetary easing outlined by Governor Adam Glapinski has not been met. There is an understanding that if the central bank refrains from interest-rate action this week, it will loosen monetary settings in October, ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. However, consensus and market pricing lean towards an earlier move, with weak data from the real economy supporting the case for a cut. There is no fixed time for the announcement of the decision or the release of the statement, but the NBP typically gives a notice at some point on the decision day. Click here to see our preview of the decision.
  • Development Funds and Regional Policy Deputy Minister Jadwiga Emilewicz told PAP newswire that Poland's GDP should grow 1% Y/Y this year and 3-4% Y/Y in 2024. Asked about her expectations surrounding today's NBP monetary policy decision, she said that "we are waiting for the MPC's announcement on lowering interest rates," adding that most analysts share that opinion.
  • The terms of three more members of the College of the Supreme Audit Office, the country's chief state watchdog, will expire tomorrow. This means that all but 3 out of 19 College seats will be vacant, while its head Marian Banas will be outnumbered by his two hostile deputies, losing control over the institution. This will give the government some respite on the final stretch of the election campaign, with Banas engaged in a long-standing dispute with the ruling party.
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