CANADA PM CARNEY CANCELS PROPOSED CAPITAL GAINS TAX INCREASE

MNI BRIEF: FAIT Didn't Affect Fed's Covid Decisions - Williams

MNI: Fed Waller Prefers Faster QT Path, Wants Contingency Plan

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Enhance Easing On External Uncertainties

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, March 21

MNI China Press Digest March 21: Land Sales, Services, PBOC

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction On Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU-Bond Auction on Monday

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 593; OIL RIGS 486; GAS RIGS 102

GERMANY: Handelsblatt Report on Lingering Uncertainties Ahead of Bundestag

GERMANY: Union/SPD Migration Alignment After Turmoil Threatened Debt Deal (BILD)

GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

SWEDEN: NDO Forecast Error Tightens In February

SWEDEN
CEEMEABulletSwedenMarketsFixed Income Bullets

The Swedish budget balance saw a surplus of SEK74.0bln in February, after posting a deficit the two months prior. The National Debt Office (NDO) forecasted a surplus of SEK60.9bln in its November 2024 report, which sees the cumulative forecast error since November move to -SEK5bln from -SEK18bln prior.

  • The higher-than-expected surplus was due to tax revenues printing SEK15bln above NDO expectations.
  • All else equal, this reduces some of the pressure for the NDO to upgrade its borrowing requirement at its next update on May 22. However the latest shifts in the EU’s defence spending prospects may still add upside issuance risks.
  • We nonetheless note that Swedish defence expenditure is already expected to be above NATO’s 2% target through 2025-2030 (~2.4% of GDP in 2025, rising to 2.6% by 2028).
  • The 10-year SGB/Bund spread closed at -25.9bps on Wednesday, following Germany's fiscal announcement. This was the tightest level since November 1. The spread has since moved away from narrowest levels though, closing at -17.7bps yesterday. 
image
162 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The Swedish budget balance saw a surplus of SEK74.0bln in February, after posting a deficit the two months prior. The National Debt Office (NDO) forecasted a surplus of SEK60.9bln in its November 2024 report, which sees the cumulative forecast error since November move to -SEK5bln from -SEK18bln prior.

  • The higher-than-expected surplus was due to tax revenues printing SEK15bln above NDO expectations.
  • All else equal, this reduces some of the pressure for the NDO to upgrade its borrowing requirement at its next update on May 22. However the latest shifts in the EU’s defence spending prospects may still add upside issuance risks.
  • We nonetheless note that Swedish defence expenditure is already expected to be above NATO’s 2% target through 2025-2030 (~2.4% of GDP in 2025, rising to 2.6% by 2028).
  • The 10-year SGB/Bund spread closed at -25.9bps on Wednesday, following Germany's fiscal announcement. This was the tightest level since November 1. The spread has since moved away from narrowest levels though, closing at -17.7bps yesterday. 
image