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US TSYS: Near Highs Ahead ISM Data, Fed Speakers

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries running modestly higher after a generally calm overnight session, modest volumes (TYH5 under 185k) with Japan mkts closed for a bank holiday.
  • Futures are off early London session highs with the Mar'25 10Y contract trading 108-31 last (+5) vs. 109-01 high - well below initial technical resistance at 110-03.5 (20-day EMA) on modest volume under 185k.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.4bp (-13.5bp), May'25 -19.5bp (-19.0bp), Jun'25 -28.2bp (-28bp).
  • Curves are looking a touch flatter (2s10s -.960 at 30.782) after climbing to new high of 33.384 yesterday -- last seen in May 2022. Tsy 2Y yield currently -.0064 at 4.2330%, 10Y yield -.0159 at 4.5430%.
  • Economic data (prior, est) at 1000ET: ISM Manufacturing (48.4, 48.2), Prices Paid (50.3, 51.4), New Orders (50.4, --) and Employment (48.1, --).
  • Scheduled Fed speakers: Richmond Fed Barkin keynote address to a Maryland bankers assn event (text, Q&A) at 1100ET LINK while SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler will speak at a mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) on Saturday evening at 1730ET.
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  • Treasuries running modestly higher after a generally calm overnight session, modest volumes (TYH5 under 185k) with Japan mkts closed for a bank holiday.
  • Futures are off early London session highs with the Mar'25 10Y contract trading 108-31 last (+5) vs. 109-01 high - well below initial technical resistance at 110-03.5 (20-day EMA) on modest volume under 185k.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 look steady to slightly higher vs. late Thursday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.4bp (-13.5bp), May'25 -19.5bp (-19.0bp), Jun'25 -28.2bp (-28bp).
  • Curves are looking a touch flatter (2s10s -.960 at 30.782) after climbing to new high of 33.384 yesterday -- last seen in May 2022. Tsy 2Y yield currently -.0064 at 4.2330%, 10Y yield -.0159 at 4.5430%.
  • Economic data (prior, est) at 1000ET: ISM Manufacturing (48.4, 48.2), Prices Paid (50.3, 51.4), New Orders (50.4, --) and Employment (48.1, --).
  • Scheduled Fed speakers: Richmond Fed Barkin keynote address to a Maryland bankers assn event (text, Q&A) at 1100ET LINK while SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler will speak at a mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) on Saturday evening at 1730ET.