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Near Highs, Gradual Unwind to Retail Sale Reaction

US TSYS
  • Treasuries look to finish near early session highs - gradually unwinding the hawkish reaction to this morning's better than expected Retail Sales data.
  • Overall retail sales saw flat (-0.02% unrounded) growth M/M, slower than the +0.3% registered in May (upward rev from 0.1%) , but above the -0.3% expected. Sales ex-autos (+0.4% vs 0.1% expected) and ex-auto/gas (+0.8% vs +0.2% expected) impressed, and also with higher revisions.
  • Tsy curves bull flattened on the day, largely reversing Monday's twist steepening with 2s10s -4.431 at -27.448. Tsy Sep 10Y futures trade +12 at 111-11.5 vs. 111-12.5 high - just off Mar 25 high of 111-13. Major resistance at 111-31 (1.382 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing).
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end remains slightly cooler vs. late Monday levels (*): July'24 at -6.5% w/ cumulative at -1.6bp at 5.313%, Sep'24 cumulative -26.6bp (-27.5bp), Nov'24 cumulative -42.9bp (-44.1bp), Dec'24 -65.4bp (-65.8bp).
  • Focus turns to Wednesday's Build Permits, House Starts, Beige Book, Tsy 20Y Bond auction reopen and upcoming earnings from Citizens Financial, US Bancorp, Discover Financial and Ally Financial.
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