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Near Lows, Possibly Overreacting to NY Fed Williams

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are moderately weaker after the bell, near session lows as markets gradually price out dovish policy projections for the year. Treasuries reacted negatively to comments from NY Fed Williams on the potential for a data driven rate hike in the future. Markets may have overreacted while Williams simply stated the Fed can take its time and let well-positioned monetary policy work and let the economy continue to rebalance.
  • On earlier data, moderate action followed slightly lower than expected weekly claims (212k vs. 215k est, prior up-revised to 212k from 211k) and continuing claims (1.812M vs. 1.818M est, prior down-revised to 1.810M from 1.817M), while Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook came out much higher than estimated (15.5 vs. 2.0 est).
  • Rates see-sawed around session lows after drop in Existing Home Sales to 4.19M from 4.38M prior comes out more or less in line with expectations (4.2m) MoM -4.3% from 9.5% prior (-4.1% est), Leading index -0.3% vs -0.1% est (prior up-revised to 0.2% from 0.1%).
  • Jun'24 10Y trading 107-24.5 last (-12.5) vs. 107-20.5 low, still inside initial technicals with support at 107-13.5 (Apr 16 low) vs r 108-25.5 resistance (Apr 12 high). 10Y yield 4.5977% +.0104, curves off lows: 2s10s +.491 -34.206.
  • Look ahead: no economic data to report Friday while Chicago Fed Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at a SABEW conference (1030ET) ahead of the Fed blackout late Friday.
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