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Policy
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Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
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Global Macro
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI ASIA MARKETS OPEN: Tsy Curves Reverse Course Ahead Wed CPI
Near Post-Data Highs, Yld Curves Bull Steepen
- Treasury futures holding narrow range near session highs since midday. After a slow start to the NY session, decent two way flow followed lower than expected JOLTS job openings to 9.93M (cons 10.50M) after a downward revised 10.56M.
- Yield curves broadly steeper but off highs (2s10s now at -49.753 vs. -45.578 high) as the short-end saw a pick-up in selling, discounting a rebound in implied rate hikes for year end..
- At the moment, Fed funds implied hike for May'23 is currently at 12.3bp vs. 17.3bp on the open, Jun'23 +6.0bp vs. +15.9bp earlier cumulative at 4.876%.
- Projected rate cuts later in the year surged on the post-data gap bid but pared the move slightly by late morning: Sep'23 cumulative currently -29.1 vs. -34.6bp high (-11.0bp on the open) to 4.525%, to -66.4bp vs. -71.5bp high for Dec'23 (-46.0bp on the open) at 4.153.
- Front month 10Y futures, TYM3 currently 116-05.5 vs. session high of 116-08.5 (10Y yield 3.3331% low). For a technical perspective, today's strong bounce undermines recent bearish signals and price has pierced resistance at 116-06+, the Mar 27 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support has been defined at 114-07, the Mar 29 and 30 low.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.