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Near Post-Data Highs, Yld Curves Bull Steepen

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures holding narrow range near session highs since midday. After a slow start to the NY session, decent two way flow followed lower than expected JOLTS job openings to 9.93M (cons 10.50M) after a downward revised 10.56M.
  • Yield curves broadly steeper but off highs (2s10s now at -49.753 vs. -45.578 high) as the short-end saw a pick-up in selling, discounting a rebound in implied rate hikes for year end..
  • At the moment, Fed funds implied hike for May'23 is currently at 12.3bp vs. 17.3bp on the open, Jun'23 +6.0bp vs. +15.9bp earlier cumulative at 4.876%.
  • Projected rate cuts later in the year surged on the post-data gap bid but pared the move slightly by late morning: Sep'23 cumulative currently -29.1 vs. -34.6bp high (-11.0bp on the open) to 4.525%, to -66.4bp vs. -71.5bp high for Dec'23 (-46.0bp on the open) at 4.153.
  • Front month 10Y futures, TYM3 currently 116-05.5 vs. session high of 116-08.5 (10Y yield 3.3331% low). For a technical perspective, today's strong bounce undermines recent bearish signals and price has pierced resistance at 116-06+, the Mar 27 high. A continuation higher would signal scope for gains towards 117-01+, the Mar 24 high and a key short-term resistance. Key support has been defined at 114-07, the Mar 29 and 30 low.
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