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Near Session Cheaps As US Tsys & JGBs Weaken, RBA Governor Speech Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -4.5) sit near Sydney session cheaps. With the domestic data calendar empty today, the local market has likely been on headlines and US tsys watch.

  • To that end, US tsys are continuing to tick lower through the Asian session, as participants continue to fade Friday's richening. Weakness in JGBs is also weighing after a Sunday article in the Nikkei newspaper reported that BOJ officials are pondering whether to tweak the settings of the yield-curve control program at the upcoming policy meeting. Cash tsys sit 5-7bps cheaper. TYZ3 deals at 105-18+, -0-13+ compared to the NY closing level on Friday.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-5bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at -19bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-5bps higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper and EFPs little changed.
  • The bills strip is little changed, with pricing -2 to +1.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat across meetings, with terminal rate expectations at 4.36% (+29bps) ahead of Wednesday's Q3 CPI data.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar sees Judo Bank PMI data and RBA Governor Bullock’s speech at CBA’s Annual Conference. This event could be an opportunity to set out her thinking about the outlook or the framework for policy, given it is her first set-piece speech since becoming Governor.

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