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Nedbank Adjusts Rand, Bond Views on Improved Fiscal Outlook

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Nedbank sees rand's neutral range at 14.50-15.25 per dollar on three-month view, from 15.00-16.00 previously, signaling "a more bullish stance,"
  • See rand "just below the 15.00 level" toward year-end, compared with previous view of 16.00
  • Strategists adjust fair-value range for 2030 rand bonds to 8.5%-9%, from previous 9%-9.5%, on a three- to six-month view
  • "We believe there is potential for further flattening of the yield curve over this period, as the market anticipates an improvement in South Africa fiscal metrics by the October 2021 medium-term budget policy statement due to a tax revenue overshoot and higher nominal GDP growth"
  • "Our long-term/structural view remains neutral long-duration bonds, as we believe the fiscal trajectory will likely deteriorate in the absence of structural reform implementation"
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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