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Net USD Specs Continue To Plunge Despite Market Uncertainty

  • Net specs on USD continue to plunge despite market uncertainty; total USD net specs fell by 51.7K contracts to -7.1K in the week ended March 1, their lowest level since July 2021.
  • On the other hand, the rapid deterioration in the Russia/Ukraine conflict has been supporting ‘safe-haven’ asset such as the US Dollar.
  • The DXY index reached a new local high of 99.42 on Monday as demand for the greenback has been constantly surging in recent weeks.
    • Next ST resistance to watch on the topside stands at 99.73, which corresponds to the 76.4% Fibo retracement of the 89.21 – 102.98 range..
    • A break above that level would open the door for a move up to the psychological 100 level.
  • The chart below shows the interesting divergence between the two times series – net USD specs and DXY index – since the start of the conflict; the ‘crowded Long USD Trade’ has now completely ‘vanished.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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