Netanyahu & Likud Slump In Polls Amid Judicial Reform Protests

Opinion polling shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his conservative Likud Party recording a slump in support amid ongoing opposition to his gov'ts controversial judicial reforms, rocket attacks from Lebanon and Syria, and sectarian violence in the West Bank. The latest polling shows Likud falling behind the centrist National Unity of former minister of defence Benny Gantz, while Netanyahu now trails both Gantz and former PM Yair Lapid in head-to-head polling. This is the first time Likud has sat in third place in a nationwide poll since March 2006.

• Party opinion polling, Seats (Gov't parites in bold): National Unity 29 seats (up 17 from 2022 election), Yesh Atid 21 (-3), Likud 20 (-12), Religious Zionist-Otzama Yehudit-Noam 11 (-3), Shas 9 (-2), United Torah Judaism 6 (-1), Hadash-Ta'al 6 (+1), Yisrael Beitainu 5 (-1), Ra'am 5 (=), Labor 4 (=), Balad 4 (+4). Camil Fuchs, Published 9 Apr, 699 respondents.
• Head-To-Head preferred PM (Camil Fuchs, Published 9 Apr, 699 respondents):
• Benny Gantz 51%, Benjamin Netanyahu 34%, Undecided 15%
• Yair Lapid 41%, Benjamin Netanyahu 37%, Undecided 22%
• The gov't holds a comfortable majority in the Knesset, meaning that a slump in polls does not pose an imminent threat to Netanyahu. However, the opposition to the reforms is coming up against the extreme-right parties in gov't that demand action to reduce the scope of the Supreme Court's powers.
• Should Netanyahu give into the moderate wing of his party it could see RZ/OY/Noam withdraw support, risking a collapse of the coalition. This is a low-probability tail risk, but one that could see Likud ousted from power in the event of a snap vote.