Nevada Senate Race Moves Away From Democrats

The Cook Political Report has re-rated the Nevada Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” noting a shift away from Democrats in the Silver State, and making Democrats' chances of retaining the Senate even more challenging.

• Axios summarises: “2020: Biden beat Trump by 36,000 votes… 2022: Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak lost to Republican Joe Lombardo, and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto beat Republican Adam Laxalt by 8,000 votes… 2024: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) faces likely GOP nominee and Army veteran Sam Brown.”
• Cook Political Report writes: “Democrats face an incredibly challenging 2024 Senate map that has them almost entirely on defense. While our three Toss Up races have remained constant and fairly obvious for some months now — Ohio, Montana and Arizona — …we now believe it is time for another Democrat to join the Toss Up ranks: Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen.”
• As the West Virginia seat of outgoing Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is all but certain to flip Republican, Democrats must hold all four of the above toss-up seats, and the unexpectedly competitive Maryland seat, if they are to retain the Senate.
• Democrats are targeting long-short pickup opportunities in Florida and Texas but are unlikely to win either barring a major shift before November.