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New Cycle Highs for Tsy Yields

US TSYS
Tsys weaker after the close, near session lows w/ TYZ2 through 110-00 psychological support of 110-00 briefly to 109-30.5 low, new cycle highs for yields: 10YY 4.1335%, 30YY 4.1302%.
  • Tsys tendency to mirror moves in EGBs, particularly Gilts reversed this morning after initially following EGBs lower (UK inflation rising to 40Y highs).
  • Tsys continued to decline amid on rising inflation and tighter policy from the Fed (MN Fed Kashkari late Tue: rates could go above 4.5-4.75% if no progress with CPI and former Boston Fed's Rosengren telling MNI he sees prospects of a 2023 rates above 5%.).
  • Gilts, on the other hand, reversed course, rebound a strong vote of confidence in new finance minister Jeremy Hunt in cleaning up UK markets since the Sep-23 mini-budget inception. Exclusion of longer dated Gilts as sales resume Nov 1, helping long end.
  • Any react to mixed data lost in the shuffle: housing start weaker than expected (including revision) while build permits stronger (including revision). Tsy $12B 20Y bond auction re-open (912810TK4) tail didn't help matters any: 4.395% high yield vs. 4.375% WI; 2.5x bid-to-cover vs. prior month's 2.65x.
  • More Fed speak this evening: Chicago Fed Evans economic outlook at 1800ET, StL Fed Bullard at 1830ET. Philly Fed Harker economic outlook at noon Thursday.
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