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New Forecasts Show Softer Inflation Profile Alongside Weaker Growth

ECB

The ECB's latest quarterly staff forecasts released in conjunction with the latest Governing Council decision show a softer inflation profile into 2024 for both headline and core rates, with unemployment rates a little lower (as employment growth is stronger than previously expected), despite weaker GDP expansion.

  • Full-year inflation is seen below 2% only in 2026.
  • Commodity price assumptions (based on market levels at the Nov 23 cutoff date) have also been revised lower. The technical assumptions also include lower interest rates.
  • Full forecasts here
F'cast Round2023202420252026
HICP inflation Y/YDecember5.4%2.7%2.1%1.9%
September5.6%3.2%2.1%
HICP ex-energy/food Y/YDecember5.0%2.7%2.3%2.1%
September5.1%2.9%2.2%
Unemployment rateDecember6.5%6.6%6.5%6.4%
September6.5%6.7%6.7%
EmploymentDecember1.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%
September1.2%0.2%0.2%
GDPDecember0.6%0.8%1.5%1.5%
September0.7%1.0%1.5%
Oil Price Assumption $/bblDecember84.0080.1076.5073.60
September82.7081.8077.90
NatGas Assumption E/MWhDecember42474437
September435447
USD/EUR AssumptionDecember1.081.081.081.08
September1.091.091.091.09
3M Euribor %December3.4%3.6%2.8%2.7%
September3.4%3.7%3.1%

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