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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessNew Forecasts Show Softer Inflation Profile Alongside Weaker Growth
The ECB's latest quarterly staff forecasts released in conjunction with the latest Governing Council decision show a softer inflation profile into 2024 for both headline and core rates, with unemployment rates a little lower (as employment growth is stronger than previously expected), despite weaker GDP expansion.
- Full-year inflation is seen below 2% only in 2026.
- Commodity price assumptions (based on market levels at the Nov 23 cutoff date) have also been revised lower. The technical assumptions also include lower interest rates.
- Full forecasts here
F'cast Round | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
HICP inflation Y/Y | December | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% |
September | 5.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | ||
HICP ex-energy/food Y/Y | December | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
September | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.2% | ||
Unemployment rate | December | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% |
September | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | ||
Employment | December | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
September | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||
GDP | December | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
September | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | ||
Oil Price Assumption $/bbl | December | 84.00 | 80.10 | 76.50 | 73.60 |
September | 82.70 | 81.80 | 77.90 | ||
NatGas Assumption E/MWh | December | 42 | 47 | 44 | 37 |
September | 43 | 54 | 47 | ||
USD/EUR Assumption | December | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
September | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | |
3M Euribor % | December | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% |
September | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.1% |
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.