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New Hampshire Senate Race Leaning Democrat After Bolduc Nomination

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Betting markets are political pundits believe that the previously rated tossup New Hampshire Senate race for incumbent Maggie Hassan's (D-NH) seat now leans Democrat after Republicans nominated far-right candidate Don Bolduc.

  • New Hampshire Republicans yesterday nominated Bolduc over establishment choice Chuck Morse. Democrat campaigners in the state boosted the campaign of Bolduc by running ads linking Morse to the unpopular Republican establishment.
  • The new dynamic further supports recent analysis that Democrats are favoured to retain control of the Senate in November's midterms.
  • This improved political environment can largely be attributed to poor candidate selection in key states. Bolduc joins Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Hershel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, and Adam Laxalt in Nevada as GOP nominees who are underperforming in key Senate races.

Chart 1: Implied Probability of Winning New Hampshire Senate Race, % (Smarkets)

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Betting markets are political pundits believe that the previously rated tossup New Hampshire Senate race for incumbent Maggie Hassan's (D-NH) seat now leans Democrat after Republicans nominated far-right candidate Don Bolduc.

  • New Hampshire Republicans yesterday nominated Bolduc over establishment choice Chuck Morse. Democrat campaigners in the state boosted the campaign of Bolduc by running ads linking Morse to the unpopular Republican establishment.
  • The new dynamic further supports recent analysis that Democrats are favoured to retain control of the Senate in November's midterms.
  • This improved political environment can largely be attributed to poor candidate selection in key states. Bolduc joins Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, Hershel Walker in Georgia, Blake Masters in Arizona, and Adam Laxalt in Nevada as GOP nominees who are underperforming in key Senate races.

Chart 1: Implied Probability of Winning New Hampshire Senate Race, % (Smarkets)