NORGES: RATES PROBABLY AT CURRENT LEVEL QUITE SOME TIME

RATES MAY NEED TO BE ON HOLD LONGER THAN ENVISIONED: NORGES

MNI: NORGES BANK LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED AT 4.50%

MNI WATCH: CNB Seen Cutting 50Bps to 5.25%, Signal Slower Pace

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, April 30

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Tackling Risks In Real Estate, Debts

Machine Orders Data Points To Slow And Gradual Recovery

Unemployment Steady; Projected to Rise Gradually

MNI: EUROZONE MAR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 6.5%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

New Poll Shows Haley Voters May Break For Biden

US
Emerson Market News HomepagePolitical Market NewsPolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

A new survey from Emerson College has provided some rare recent positive polling for President Biden, showing he has strengthened slightly in a hypothetical matchup with former President Donald Trump and suggesting voters who supported former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the GOP primary are likely to break for Biden.

  • Spencer Kimball at Emerson said: “Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump.”
  • On the Haley vote, Kimball notes: "Haley primary voters break for Biden in the general election, 63% to 27%, with 10% undecided. In 2020 these voters broke for Biden 52% to 36%."
  • After withdrawing from the presidential race, Haley declined to immediately endorse Trump. If she pivots to endorsing Trump in the coming weeks, it could reduce some risk to Trump from moderate Republicans and Independents.
  • Emerson sees little spoiler effect from a third-party candidate: "With third-party candidates on the ballot, 43% support Trump, 42% Biden, 6% Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein. Seven percent are undecided."
  • Comes as, according to Reuters, the third-party group No Labels, "is expected to announce on Friday that its moving forward with a presidential bid, but stop short of naming the candidates... The group is holding a 800-person private virtual meeting on Friday."

Figure 1: Hypothetical 2024 Presidential Race

Keep reading...Show less
242 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

A new survey from Emerson College has provided some rare recent positive polling for President Biden, showing he has strengthened slightly in a hypothetical matchup with former President Donald Trump and suggesting voters who supported former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley in the GOP primary are likely to break for Biden.

  • Spencer Kimball at Emerson said: “Biden leads Trump among voters under 30, 43% to 37%, with 20% undecided. When these voters are forced to choose between Biden and Trump and their support is included in the total, 58% support Biden and 42% Trump.”
  • On the Haley vote, Kimball notes: "Haley primary voters break for Biden in the general election, 63% to 27%, with 10% undecided. In 2020 these voters broke for Biden 52% to 36%."
  • After withdrawing from the presidential race, Haley declined to immediately endorse Trump. If she pivots to endorsing Trump in the coming weeks, it could reduce some risk to Trump from moderate Republicans and Independents.
  • Emerson sees little spoiler effect from a third-party candidate: "With third-party candidates on the ballot, 43% support Trump, 42% Biden, 6% Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% Cornel West, and 1% Jill Stein. Seven percent are undecided."
  • Comes as, according to Reuters, the third-party group No Labels, "is expected to announce on Friday that its moving forward with a presidential bid, but stop short of naming the candidates... The group is holding a 800-person private virtual meeting on Friday."

Figure 1: Hypothetical 2024 Presidential Race

Keep reading...Show less