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New York Special Election Could Be Bellwether For Midterm Dynamics


Voting in underway in a special election in New York's 19th Congressional district, a swing district with a Republican candidate running broadly on the economy and a Democrat candidate running broadly on abortion.

  • Polling currently shows the race between Republican Marc Molinaro and Democrat Pat Ryan too close to call.
  • Analysists are watching the race closely to determine how significant a role the issue of reproductive rights will play in the midterms.
  • The Hill: "Molinaro has been zeroing in on the economy, while Ryan looks to seize on anger surrounding the overturning of Roe v. Wade to drive their respective voters to the polls."
  • Democratic strategist Jon Reinish said that NY19 " the ultimate swing district. This is a 50-50 district.”
  • Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report: "This is a place where we're going to get our first road-test on the messaging, especially on abortion. Democrats will lean into the issue of abortion and Republicans will lean into the economy and inflation."
  • A Republican strategist said: “Obviously the coverage is going in the way of it being a bellwether because Pat Ryan has decided to run the entire campaign on abortion."
  • The winner of the race will serve in Congress until January, with Ryan and Molinaro likely to contest the race for a second time in November.

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