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NEW ZEALAND: Q3 Filled Jobs Decline Faster Than Q2 Pointing To Soft Labour Data

NEW ZEALAND
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September filled jobs remained weak but posted the second straight month of no change after four months of declines. They are now down 0.9% y/y, the weakest since February 2010, but the level may now be stabilising. The RBNZ has cut rates 75bp since August and is likely to continue reducing policy restrictiveness at its November 27 meeting and in Q1 2025.

  • The Q3 average of filled jobs is down 16.5k q/q a deterioration from Q2’s -12.7k, signalling that Q3 labour data is likely to be weak on November 6. In percentage terms, Q3 fell 0.7% q/q after 0.5% q/q in Q2 and are now down 0.8% y/y. Q2 employment grew 0.4% q/q to be up 0.6% y/y.
  • Westpac is forecasting a 0.4pp increase in the unemployment rate to 5.0%, which it says is consistent with the Q3 filled jobs data.
  • The weakness has been concentrated among young people with 15-19 year olds down 13% y/y and 20-24 years down 3.3% y/y. A rise in youth unemployment can be a lead indicator for the rest of the labour market.
  • All major industries were soft in September with services up 0.1% m/m, primary industries down 0.8% m/m and goods down 0.2% m/m.
  • On a year ago, health & social assistance jobs rose 3.9% but construction fell 5%, admin 6.8%, accommodation & food services 3.8% and manufacturing 2.4%. The weakness is broad based across NZ’s regions.
  • August was revised down from +0.2% m/m to 0.0%.

NZ employment y/y%

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September filled jobs remained weak but posted the second straight month of no change after four months of declines. They are now down 0.9% y/y, the weakest since February 2010, but the level may now be stabilising. The RBNZ has cut rates 75bp since August and is likely to continue reducing policy restrictiveness at its November 27 meeting and in Q1 2025.

  • The Q3 average of filled jobs is down 16.5k q/q a deterioration from Q2’s -12.7k, signalling that Q3 labour data is likely to be weak on November 6. In percentage terms, Q3 fell 0.7% q/q after 0.5% q/q in Q2 and are now down 0.8% y/y. Q2 employment grew 0.4% q/q to be up 0.6% y/y.
  • Westpac is forecasting a 0.4pp increase in the unemployment rate to 5.0%, which it says is consistent with the Q3 filled jobs data.
  • The weakness has been concentrated among young people with 15-19 year olds down 13% y/y and 20-24 years down 3.3% y/y. A rise in youth unemployment can be a lead indicator for the rest of the labour market.
  • All major industries were soft in September with services up 0.1% m/m, primary industries down 0.8% m/m and goods down 0.2% m/m.
  • On a year ago, health & social assistance jobs rose 3.9% but construction fell 5%, admin 6.8%, accommodation & food services 3.8% and manufacturing 2.4%. The weakness is broad based across NZ’s regions.
  • August was revised down from +0.2% m/m to 0.0%.

NZ employment y/y%

Keep reading...Show less