MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, January 10

MNI BRIEF: China To Adopt Very Proactive Fiscal Policy-Offical

CANADA LIBERAL LEADERHIP VOTE TO REPLACE TRUDEAU SET FOR MAR 9

MNI BRIEF: PBOC Suspends Bonds Trades As Yields Drop

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY14.8 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1891 Fri; -2.36% Y/Y

MNI: CANADIAN NOV BUILDING PERMITS -5.9% MOM

US DEC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.086%

MNI: US DEC NONFARM PAYROLLS +256K; PRIVATE +223K, GOVT +33K

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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STIR: Next Fed Cut In June Only Just Fully Priced Pre-Payrolls

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen an intraday boost from hawkish comments from St Louis Fed’s Musalem (’25 voter). He viewed the Dec decision as a close call but interestingly wasn’t one of the four dots that indicated a preference of no cut that meeting (vs only one official dissent) – see the 0601ET bullet for details.
  • It helps see rates 0.5-3bp higher on the day across 2025 meetings.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp Jan, 10.5bp Mar, 16bp May, 25bp Jun, 29bp Jul and 40bp Dec.
  • Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25) is today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak, following nonfarm payrolls at 1004ET. Typically the most dovish member of the FOMC, headlines echoing other FOMC rhetoric around the need for greater caution would be notable. He said Dec 20 that he made his 2025 rate path more shallow in the Dec SEP but still sees rates coming down a fair bit more and over a 12-18 month window.
  • MNI NFP preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Jan2025_Preview_cf189ac187.pdf
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen an intraday boost from hawkish comments from St Louis Fed’s Musalem (’25 voter). He viewed the Dec decision as a close call but interestingly wasn’t one of the four dots that indicated a preference of no cut that meeting (vs only one official dissent) – see the 0601ET bullet for details.
  • It helps see rates 0.5-3bp higher on the day across 2025 meetings.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp Jan, 10.5bp Mar, 16bp May, 25bp Jun, 29bp Jul and 40bp Dec.
  • Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25) is today’s sole scheduled Fedspeak, following nonfarm payrolls at 1004ET. Typically the most dovish member of the FOMC, headlines echoing other FOMC rhetoric around the need for greater caution would be notable. He said Dec 20 that he made his 2025 rate path more shallow in the Dec SEP but still sees rates coming down a fair bit more and over a 12-18 month window.
  • MNI NFP preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Jan2025_Preview_cf189ac187.pdf
image