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Next Step A RRR Cut?

CHINA RATES
  • Onshore reports suggest a challenging month ahead in August for liquidity in the onshore market in China.
  • The Medium-Term Lending facility, so intrinsic to the domestic economy, has a reported CNY400bn of maturities in August.
  • Following the completion of the Plenum, regions have been given some additional autonomy to drive their economies and this is expected is set to spur bond issuance in August and beyond.
  • Analysts suggest that CNY1 trillion of issuance is possible to fund expansion targets and meet the needs of maturities.
  • Post plenum a combination of a cut in the reverse repo rate and a reduction in the 5- and 1-year Loan Prime Rate were announced to support liquidity.
  • With banks holdings of government bonds down in recent trading sessions, this may be symptomatic of the challenges they face with liquidity and could foreshadow a potential cut in the RRR by authorities.
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