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SWEDEN: NIER Economic Update - December 2024: More Dovish Than Riksbank

SWEDEN
SwedenCEEMEABulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Highlights from the update:

  • "The recession in Sweden continues to deepen, and a turnaround will only occur a little into 2025.
  • "The recession will also remain in 2026. The most important factor for the recovery being delayed is continued restrained households".
  • "In addition, Swedish exports are hampered by the weak economic development in the euro area. Unemployment will remain at approximately today's level throughout 2025".
  • NIER sees the Riksbank policy rate to average 1.50% in 2025 and 2026, well below the "terminal rate" of 2.25% signalled in the December MPR rate path.
  • 2025 GDP is forecast at 1.2% (vs Riksbank Dec MPR 1.8%), while CPIF inflation is forecast at 1.7% (vs Riksbank 2.0%).
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Highlights from the update:

  • "The recession in Sweden continues to deepen, and a turnaround will only occur a little into 2025.
  • "The recession will also remain in 2026. The most important factor for the recovery being delayed is continued restrained households".
  • "In addition, Swedish exports are hampered by the weak economic development in the euro area. Unemployment will remain at approximately today's level throughout 2025".
  • NIER sees the Riksbank policy rate to average 1.50% in 2025 and 2026, well below the "terminal rate" of 2.25% signalled in the December MPR rate path.
  • 2025 GDP is forecast at 1.2% (vs Riksbank Dec MPR 1.8%), while CPIF inflation is forecast at 1.7% (vs Riksbank 2.0%).